Bitcoin cycles since each halving

Comparison of Bitcoin's cycles: the price since each halving (2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024) overlaid, with each cycle's top and the drop that followed.

What does the cycle comparison show?

Roughly every four years, the halving cuts in half the number of new bitcoins issued. The chart lines up the cycles on their halving day and measures the price as a multiple of that day's price, so you can see whether the current cycle is ahead of or behind previous ones and how much it has risen by comparison.

What do previous cycles show?

In the three complete cycles the top came 12 to 18 months after the halving (on days 371, 525 and 546), after which the price fell 77% to 85%, bottoming out about two and a half years after the halving. Each cycle has multiplied the price less than the one before: ×92 in 2012, ×30 in 2016 and ×7.9 in 2020. In the current cycle the high came in October 2025, on day 534, at ×1.9.

Will the pattern repeat?

There is no guarantee. There are only three complete cycles, and the market has changed a lot: there are now ETFs, large institutional investors and a closer link to global liquidity. The comparison is a reference for placing the current moment in the cycle, not a forecast. That is why the Is BTC Cheap? index combines the cycle with valuation, liquidity, sentiment and technical analysis.